the Average Max Method<\/a>. It is conservative and easy to run while your data improves.<\/span><\/p>\n2. The Steady State Business Stable Supply Variable Demand<\/b><\/h3>\n
If supply is reliable but demand fluctuates, which is common in retail and distribution.<\/span><\/p>\nRecommendation:<\/b> use the Standard Deviation Method focused on demand. You optimize based on customer behavior without over buffering for supply risks that are minor.<\/span><\/p>\n3. The Global Importer Stable Demand Volatile Supply<\/b><\/h3>\n
If your demand is stable but lead time is unpredictable, which often happens with overseas sourcing.<\/span><\/p>\nRecommendation:<\/b> use the Variable Lead Time Formula.<\/span><\/p>\n4. The High Performance Enterprise High Volatility High Service Requirements<\/b><\/h3>\n
If both demand and supply are volatile and stockouts are costly.<\/span><\/p>\nRecommendation:<\/b> use the Combined Demand and Lead Time Variability formula. It is the most reliable option when you face dual uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\nSafety Stock Calculation Example<\/strong><\/h2>\nTo make this practical, here is a step by step example using the standard deviation method that focuses on demand.<\/span><\/p>\nScenario:<\/b> you sell fast moving electronic components.<\/span><\/p>\nData you have:<\/b><\/p>\n\n- Average daily demand: 50 units<\/span><\/li>\n
- Average lead time: 10 days<\/span><\/li>\n
- Target service level: 95 percent, Z score 1.65<\/span><\/li>\n
- Standard deviation of demand: 12 units<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
Step 1: Pick the formula<\/b>
\n<\/b> Since lead time is stable, use:<\/span>
\n<\/span> Safety Stock = Z \u00d7 \u03c3D \u00d7 \u221aL<\/span><\/p>\nStep 2: Calculate the square root of lead time<\/b>
\n<\/b> \u221a10 is about 3.16<\/span><\/p>\nStep 3: Plug in the numbers<\/b>
\n<\/b> Safety Stock = 1.65 \u00d7 12 \u00d7 3.16<\/span><\/p>\nStep 4: Multiply<\/b>
\n<\/b> 1.65 \u00d7 12 = 19.8<\/span>
\n<\/span> 19.8 \u00d7 3.16 = 62.56<\/span><\/p>\nStep 5: Round up<\/b>
\n<\/b> You cannot hold 0.56 of a unit, so round up.<\/span><\/p>\nSafety stock = 63 units<\/b><\/p>\n
Reorder point:<\/b>
\n<\/b> Cycle stock during lead time = 50 \u00d7 10 = 500 units<\/span>
\n<\/span> ROP = 500 + 63 = 563 units<\/span><\/p>\nSo when your on hand inventory drops to 563, you place a new order.<\/span><\/p>\nWhen to Recalculate Safety Stock<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n
A common mistake is treating safety stock as set and forget. Supply chains keep changing, so your buffer needs updates too. Recalculate when these triggers appear.<\/span><\/p>\n1. Changes in Supplier Performance<\/b><\/h3>\n
If a supplier changes warehouses, switches carriers, or faces capacity changes, lead time variability shifts. If reliability improves, you can reduce buffer and free cash. If reliability drops, you need more buffer to maintain the same service level.<\/span><\/p>\n2. Introduction of New Products<\/b><\/h3>\n
New products do not have enough history. At first, you can use a simpler method. Once you build a few months of data, switch to a statistical method to tune the buffer more accurately.<\/span><\/p>\n3. Seasonal Fluctuations<\/b><\/h3>\n
Demand variability changes with seasons. In Malaysia, spikes can happen before Hari Raya, year end shopping, and major e commerce campaigns. If you rely on a single year round deviation, you can end up overstocked in quiet months and short in peak periods. Segment your calculations by season or relevant periods to keep buffers realistic.<\/span><\/p>\n4. Strategic Business Shifts<\/b><\/h3>\n
If leadership raises your service level target from 95 percent to 99 percent, the Z score changes. That means safety stock must increase across affected SKUs. Update immediately so your inventory policy matches the new strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n